André Bauer

In many areas of decision making, forecasting is an essential pillar. Consequently, there are many different forecasting methods. According to the "No-Free-Lunch Theorem", there is no single forecasting method that performs best for all time series. In other words, each method has its advantages and disadvantages depending on the specific use case. Therefore, the choice of the forecasting method remains a mandatory expert task. However, expert knowledge cannot be fully automated. To establish a level playing field for evaluating the performance of time series forecasting methods in a broad setting, we propose Libra, a forecasting benchmark that automatically evaluates and ranks forecasting methods based on their performance in a diverse set of evaluation scenarios. The benchmark comprises four different use cases, each covering 100 heterogeneous time series taken from different domains. The data set was assembled from publicly available time series and was designed to exhibit much higher diversity than existing forecasting competitions. Based on this benchmark, we perform a comprehensive evaluation to compare different existing time series forecasting methods.

Modern distributed applications offer complex performance behavior and many degrees of freedom regarding deployment and configuration. Researchers employ various methods of analysis, modeling, and management that leverage these degrees of freedom to predict or improve non-functional properties of the software under consideration. In order to demonstrate and evaluate their applicability in the real world, methods resulting from such research areas require test and reference applications that offer a range of different behaviors, as well as the necessary degrees of freedom. Existing production software is often inaccessible for researchers or closed off to instrumentation. Existing testing and benchmarking frameworks, on the other hand, are either designed for specific testing scenarios, or they do not offer the necessary degrees of freedom. Further, most test applications are difficult to deploy and run, or are outdated. In this paper, we introduce the TeaStore, a state-of-the-art micro-service-based test and reference application. TeaStore offers services with different performance characteristics and many degrees of freedom regarding deployment and configuration to be used as a benchmarking framework for researchers. The TeaStore allows evaluating performance modeling and resource management techniques; it also offers instrumented variants to enable extensive run-time analysis. We demonstrate TeaStore's use in three contexts: performance modeling, cloud resource management, and energy efficiency analysis. Our experiments show that TeaStore can be used for evaluating novel approaches in these contexts and also motivates further research in the areas of performance modeling and resource management.