Publications

Artikel in einem Journal, einer Zeitung oder einem Magazin [ nach oben ]

Time Series Forecasting for Self-Aware Systems. Bauer, André; Züfle, Marwin; Herbst, Nikolas; Zehe, Albin; Hotho, Andreas; Kounev, Samuel; in Proceedings of the IEEE (2020). 108(7) 1068–1093.
[ BibTeX ] [ EndNote ]
 
@article{BaZuHeZeHoKo-PIEEE-Forecasting, author = {Bauer, Andr{é} and Z{ü}fle, Marwin and Herbst, Nikolas and Zehe, Albin and Hotho, Andreas and Kounev, Samuel}, journal = {Proceedings of the IEEE}, keywords = {Elasticity Metrics_and_benchmarking_methodologies Online_monitoring_and_forecasting Prediction Self-aware-computing Telescope descartes t_journalmagazine myown}, month = 7, number = 7, pages = {1068 - 1093}, title = {{Time Series Forecasting for Self-Aware Systems}}, volume = 108, year = 2020 }
%0 Journal Article %1 BaZuHeZeHoKo-PIEEE-Forecasting %A Bauer, André %A Züfle, Marwin %A Herbst, Nikolas %A Zehe, Albin %A Hotho, Andreas %A Kounev, Samuel %D 2020 %J Proceedings of the IEEE %N 7 %P 1068 - 1093 %T Time Series Forecasting for Self-Aware Systems %V 108

Artikel in Konferenzband [ nach oben ]

Best Practices for Time Series Forecasting. Bauer, André; Züfle, Marwin; Herbst, Nikolas; Kounev, Samuel; in 2019 IEEE 4th International Workshops on Foundations and Applications of Self* Systems (FAS*W) (2019).
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@inproceedings{BaZuHeKoCu-ICDE-Telescope, author = {Bauer, Andr{é} and Z{ü}fle, Marwin and Herbst, Nikolas and Kounev, Samuel and Curtef, Valentin}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 36th International Conference on Data Engineering (ICDE)}, keywords = {Online_monitoring_and_forecasting Prediction Telescope Tool descartes t_short myown}, month = {April}, title = {Telescope: An Automatic Feature Extraction and Transformation Approach for Time Series Forecasting on a Level-Playing Field}, year = 2020 }
%0 Conference Paper %1 BaZuHeKoCu-ICDE-Telescope %A Bauer, André %A Züfle, Marwin %A Herbst, Nikolas %A Kounev, Samuel %A Curtef, Valentin %B Proceedings of the 36th International Conference on Data Engineering (ICDE) %D 2020 %T Telescope: An Automatic Feature Extraction and Transformation Approach for Time Series Forecasting on a Level-Playing Field

Telescope: An Automatic Feature Extraction and Transformation Approach for Time Series Forecasting on a Level-Playing Field. Bauer, André; Züfle, Marwin; Herbst, Nikolas; Kounev, Samuel; Curtef, Valentin; in Proceedings of the 36th International Conference on Data Engineering (ICDE) (2020).
[ Abstract ] [ BibTeX ] [ EndNote ] [ URL ] [ Download ]
 
Resource demands are crucial parameters for modeling and predicting the performance of software systems. Direct measurement of these resource demands is usually infeasible due to instrumentation overheads causing measurement interferences and perturbation in production environments. Thus, a number of statistical estimation approaches (e.g., based on optimization, regression or Kalman filters) have been proposed in the literature. Most of these approaches are parameterized. These parameters influence the estimation quality and the required computation time. Existing work uses historical data as training sets to optimize those parameters and to minimize the estimation error of those approaches. However, if the data traces are fundamentally different, the optimal parameter settings are different as well. In this paper, we propose to use automated clustering in order to group training sets into groups of similar optimization behavior. This way, optimization can be specifically tailored to certain groups of traces in a self-aware manner. During run-time, every trace is first sorted into a cluster, where the respective cluster-wide parameter optimum can be applied. A preliminary case study shows that clustering can provide promising improvements.
@inproceedings{GrEiBaZuHeKo2019-ICAC-RDEClustering, abstract = {Resource demands are crucial parameters for modeling and predicting the performance of software systems. Direct measurement of these resource demands is usually infeasible due to instrumentation overheads causing measurement interferences and perturbation in production environments. Thus, a number of statistical estimation approaches (e.g., based on optimization, regression or Kalman filters) have been proposed in the literature. Most of these approaches are parameterized. These parameters influence the estimation quality and the required computation time. Existing work uses historical data as training sets to optimize those parameters and to minimize the estimation error of those approaches. However, if the data traces are fundamentally different, the optimal parameter settings are different as well. In this paper, we propose to use automated clustering in order to group training sets into groups of similar optimization behavior. This way, optimization can be specifically tailored to certain groups of traces in a self-aware manner. During run-time, every trace is first sorted into a cluster, where the respective cluster-wide parameter optimum can be applied. A preliminary case study shows that clustering can provide promising improvements.}, author = {Grohmann, Johannes and Eismann, Simon and Bauer, Andre and Zuefle, Marwin and Herbst, Nikolas and Kounev, Samuel}, booktitle = {2019 IEEE 4th International Workshops on Foundations and Applications of Self* Systems (FAS*W)}, keywords = {GoogleResearchAward Instrumentation_profiling_and_workload_characterization LibReDE Optimization PRISMA Performance Self-adaptive-systems Self-aware-computing Statistical_estimation_and_machine_learning descartes t_workshop myown}, month = {June}, pages = {134–139}, publisher = {IEEE}, title = {{Utilizing Clustering to Optimize Resource Demand Estimation Approaches}}, year = 2019 }
%0 Conference Paper %1 GrEiBaZuHeKo2019-ICAC-RDEClustering %A Grohmann, Johannes %A Eismann, Simon %A Bauer, Andre %A Zuefle, Marwin %A Herbst, Nikolas %A Kounev, Samuel %B 2019 IEEE 4th International Workshops on Foundations and Applications of Self* Systems (FAS*W) %D 2019 %I IEEE %P 134--139 %T Utilizing Clustering to Optimize Resource Demand Estimation Approaches %U https://doi.org/10.1109/FAS-W.2019.00043 %X Resource demands are crucial parameters for modeling and predicting the performance of software systems. Direct measurement of these resource demands is usually infeasible due to instrumentation overheads causing measurement interferences and perturbation in production environments. Thus, a number of statistical estimation approaches (e.g., based on optimization, regression or Kalman filters) have been proposed in the literature. Most of these approaches are parameterized. These parameters influence the estimation quality and the required computation time. Existing work uses historical data as training sets to optimize those parameters and to minimize the estimation error of those approaches. However, if the data traces are fundamentally different, the optimal parameter settings are different as well. In this paper, we propose to use automated clustering in order to group training sets into groups of similar optimization behavior. This way, optimization can be specifically tailored to certain groups of traces in a self-aware manner. During run-time, every trace is first sorted into a cluster, where the respective cluster-wide parameter optimum can be applied. A preliminary case study shows that clustering can provide promising improvements.

Utilizing Clustering to Optimize Resource Demand Estimation Approaches. Grohmann, Johannes; Eismann, Simon; Bauer, Andre; Zuefle, Marwin; Herbst, Nikolas; Kounev, Samuel; in 2019 IEEE 4th International Workshops on Foundations and Applications of Self* Systems (FAS*W) (2019). 134–139.
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@inproceedings{BaZuHeKo2019-ICAC-ForecastingTutorial, author = {Bauer, Andr{é} and Z{ü}fle, Marwin and Herbst, Nikolas and Kounev, Samuel}, booktitle = {{2019 IEEE 4th International Workshops on Foundations and Applications of Self* Systems (FAS*W)}}, keywords = {Telescope Online_monitoring_and_forecasting myown t_tutorial descartes}, month = {June}, title = {{Best Practices for Time Series Forecasting}}, year = 2019 }
%0 Conference Paper %1 BaZuHeKo2019-ICAC-ForecastingTutorial %A Bauer, André %A Züfle, Marwin %A Herbst, Nikolas %A Kounev, Samuel %B 2019 IEEE 4th International Workshops on Foundations and Applications of Self* Systems (FAS*W) %D 2019 %T Best Practices for Time Series Forecasting

Telescope: A Hybrid Forecast Method for Univariate Time Series. Züfle, Marwin; Bauer, André; Herbst, Nikolas; Curtef, Valentin; Kounev, Samuel; in Proceedings of the International work-conference on Time Series (ITISE 2017) (2017).
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@inproceedings{ZuBaLeKrHeKoCu2019-ICAC-Autonomic, author = {Z{ü}fle, Marwin and Bauer, Andr{é} and Lesch, Veronika and Krupitzer, Christian and Herbst, Nikolas and Kounev, Samuel and Curtef, Valentin}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 16th {IEEE} International Conference on Autonomic Computing (ICAC)}, keywords = {Internet_of_Things Online_monitoring_and_forecasting PRISMA Performance Prediction Statistical_estimation_and_machine_learning descartes t_full myown}, month = {June}, publisher = {IEEE}, title = {{Autonomic Forecasting Method Selection: Examination and Ways Ahead}}, year = 2019 }
%0 Conference Paper %1 ZuBaLeKrHeKoCu2019-ICAC-Autonomic %A Züfle, Marwin %A Bauer, André %A Lesch, Veronika %A Krupitzer, Christian %A Herbst, Nikolas %A Kounev, Samuel %A Curtef, Valentin %B Proceedings of the 16th IEEE International Conference on Autonomic Computing (ICAC) %D 2019 %I IEEE %T Autonomic Forecasting Method Selection: Examination and Ways Ahead

Autonomic Forecasting Method Selection: Examination and Ways Ahead. Züfle, Marwin; Bauer, André; Lesch, Veronika; Krupitzer, Christian; Herbst, Nikolas; Kounev, Samuel; Curtef, Valentin; in Proceedings of the 16th IEEE International Conference on Autonomic Computing (ICAC) (2019).
[ Abstract ] [ BibTeX ] [ EndNote ] [ Download ]
 
Forecasting is an important part of the decision-making process and used in many fields like business, economics, finance, science, and engineering. According to the No-Free-Lunch-Theorem from 1997, there is no general forecasting method, that performs best for all time series. Instead, expert knowledge is needed to decide which forecasting method to choose for a specific time series with its own characteristics. Since a trial and error approach is very inefficient and expert knowledge is useful but a time-consuming task that cannot be fully automated, we present a new hybrid multi-step-ahead forecasting approach based on time series decomposition. Initial evaluations show that this hybrid approach improves the forecast accuracy compared to six existing forecasting methods while maintaining a short runtime.
@inproceedings{ZBBHCK2017-ITISE-Telescope, abstract = {Forecasting is an important part of the decision-making process and used in many fields like business, economics, finance, science, and engineering. According to the No-Free-Lunch-Theorem from 1997, there is no general forecasting method, that performs best for all time series. Instead, expert knowledge is needed to decide which forecasting method to choose for a specific time series with its own characteristics. Since a trial and error approach is very inefficient and expert knowledge is useful but a time-consuming task that cannot be fully automated, we present a new hybrid multi-step-ahead forecasting approach based on time series decomposition. Initial evaluations show that this hybrid approach improves the forecast accuracy compared to six existing forecasting methods while maintaining a short runtime.}, author = {Z{ü}fle, Marwin and Bauer, Andr{é} and Herbst, Nikolas and Curtef, Valentin and Kounev, Samuel}, booktitle = {{Proceedings of the International work-conference on Time Series (ITISE 2017)}}, keywords = {Online_monitoring_and_forecasting Optimization Prediction Statistical_estimation_and_machine_learning Telescope Tool descartes t_extendedabstract myown}, month = {September}, title = {{Telescope: A Hybrid Forecast Method for Univariate Time Series}}, year = 2017 }
%0 Conference Paper %1 ZBBHCK2017-ITISE-Telescope %A Züfle, Marwin %A Bauer, André %A Herbst, Nikolas %A Curtef, Valentin %A Kounev, Samuel %B Proceedings of the International work-conference on Time Series (ITISE 2017) %D 2017 %T Telescope: A Hybrid Forecast Method for Univariate Time Series %X Forecasting is an important part of the decision-making process and used in many fields like business, economics, finance, science, and engineering. According to the No-Free-Lunch-Theorem from 1997, there is no general forecasting method, that performs best for all time series. Instead, expert knowledge is needed to decide which forecasting method to choose for a specific time series with its own characteristics. Since a trial and error approach is very inefficient and expert knowledge is useful but a time-consuming task that cannot be fully automated, we present a new hybrid multi-step-ahead forecasting approach based on time series decomposition. Initial evaluations show that this hybrid approach improves the forecast accuracy compared to six existing forecasting methods while maintaining a short runtime.

Kapitel (Teil eines Buches) [ nach oben ]

Towards a Self-Aware Prediction of Critical States. Züfle, Marwin; in Organic Computing: Doctoral Dissertation Colloquium 2020, S. Tomforde, C. Krupitzer (Hrsg.) (2020).
(to appear)
[ BibTeX ] [ EndNote ]
 
@incollection{zufle2020towards, author = {Z{ü}fle, Marwin}, booktitle = {Organic Computing: Doctoral Dissertation Colloquium 2020}, editor = {Tomforde, Sven and Krupitzer, Christian}, keywords = {Self-aware-computing descartes t_bookchapter myown statistical_estimation_and_machine_learning prediction online_monitoring_and_forecasting}, month = {jul}, note = {(to appear)}, title = {Towards a Self-Aware Prediction of Critical States}, year = 2020 }
%0 Book Section %1 zufle2020towards %A Züfle, Marwin %B Organic Computing: Doctoral Dissertation Colloquium 2020 %D 2020 %E Tomforde, Sven %E Krupitzer, Christian %T Towards a Self-Aware Prediction of Critical States

Report [ nach oben ]

A Survey on Human Machine Interaction in Industry 4.0 Krupitzer, Christian; Müller, Sebastian; Lesch, Veronika; Züfle, Marwin; Edinger, Janick; Lemken, Alexander; Schäfer, Dominik; Kounev, Samuel; Becker, Christian; (2020).
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@techreport{Krupitzer2020ASurveyPdM, author = {Krupitzer, Christian and Wagenhals, Tim and Z{ü}fle, Marwin and Lesch, Veronika and Sch{ä}fer, Dominik and Mozaffarin, Amin and Edinger, Janick and Becker, Christian and Kounev, Samuel}, institution = {Universit{ä}t W{ü}rzburg and University of Mannheim and Syntax Systems GmbH and MOZYS Engineering GmbH}, journal = {arXiv}, keywords = {Cyber-Physical_Systems Industry_4_0 Internet_of_Things Online_monitoring_and_forecasting Prediction Reliability Survey descartes t_techreport myown}, month = {feb}, title = {{A Survey on Predictive Maintenance for Industry 4.0}}, year = 2020 }
%0 Report %1 Krupitzer2020ASurveyPdM %A Krupitzer, Christian %A Wagenhals, Tim %A Züfle, Marwin %A Lesch, Veronika %A Schäfer, Dominik %A Mozaffarin, Amin %A Edinger, Janick %A Becker, Christian %A Kounev, Samuel %D 2020 %J arXiv %T A Survey on Predictive Maintenance for Industry 4.0 %U https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08224

A Survey on Predictive Maintenance for Industry 4.0 Krupitzer, Christian; Wagenhals, Tim; Züfle, Marwin; Lesch, Veronika; Schäfer, Dominik; Mozaffarin, Amin; Edinger, Janick; Becker, Christian; Kounev, Samuel; (2020).
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@techreport{Krupitzer2020ASurvey, author = {Krupitzer, Christian and M{ü}ller, Sebastian and Lesch, Veronika and Z{ü}fle, Marwin and Edinger, Janick and Lemken, Alexander and Sch{ä}fer, Dominik and Kounev, Samuel and Becker, Christian}, institution = {Universit{ä}t W{ü}rzburg and University of Mannheim and ioxp GmbH and Syntax Systems GmbH}, journal = {arXiv}, keywords = {Industry_4_0 Survey descartes t_techreport myown}, month = {feb}, title = {{A Survey on Human Machine Interaction in Industry 4.0}}, year = 2020 }
%0 Report %1 Krupitzer2020ASurvey %A Krupitzer, Christian %A Müller, Sebastian %A Lesch, Veronika %A Züfle, Marwin %A Edinger, Janick %A Lemken, Alexander %A Schäfer, Dominik %A Kounev, Samuel %A Becker, Christian %D 2020 %J arXiv %T A Survey on Human Machine Interaction in Industry 4.0 %U https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.01025

Sonstiges [ nach oben ]

Predictive Maintenance for Industry 4.0. Züfle, Marwin; (2018, April).
[ BibTeX ] [ EndNote ]
 
@misc{talk-ZuLe, author = {Z{ü}fle, Marwin and Leppich, Robert}, howpublished = {Invited Talk at Klinikum N{ü}rnberg}, keywords = {Cloud Health IoT Prediction Sports Statistical_estimation_and_machine_learning Talks descartes myown t_talk}, month = {November}, title = {{Artificial Intelligence in Medicine - From Data Collection to Prediction}}, year = 2019 }
%0 Generic %1 talk-ZuLe %A Züfle, Marwin %A Leppich, Robert %D 2019 %T Artificial Intelligence in Medicine - From Data Collection to Prediction

Artificial Intelligence in Medicine - From Data Collection to Prediction. Züfle, Marwin; Leppich, Robert; (2019, November).
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@misc{talk-Zuefle-SelPhyS, author = {Z{ü}fle, Marwin}, howpublished = {Talk at Workshop on Self-Awareness in Cyber-Physical Systems 2018}, keywords = {Prediction Statistical_estimation_and_machine_learning Talks Telescope descartes se2_talk t_talk myown}, month = {April}, title = {{Predictive Maintenance for Industry 4.0}}, year = 2018 }
%0 Generic %1 talk-Zuefle-SelPhyS %A Züfle, Marwin %D 2018 %T Predictive Maintenance for Industry 4.0